2016

The FOMC has decided to raise the target range to 0.50% – 0.75%. This 25 bps upward adjustment to the Fed Fund rate was almost guaranteed, as the futures implied probability of an additional hike had increased from ~75% at the beginning of November to 100% in the days leading up to the meeting. There was even a small chance that a 50 bps could have taken place, although the unanimous decision illustrates Chair Yellen’s ability to reign in the four more hawkish Committee members that had previously projected a higher year-end rate. Growth: The official statement indicated that “economic…

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: Recent economic data showed the US economy delivered solid growth during the third quarter after a tepid pace in the first half of 2016.  US households boosted spending against a backdrop of solid employment growth, cheap gasoline and rising home values.  The Commerce Department showed 3Q16 gross domestic product rose at a 3.2% annualized rate, the fastest pace in two years.  The rate of consumer spending, which accounts…

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: After subdued growth during the first half of the year, the US economy picked up steam during the third quarter driven by strong business spending and growth in exports.  The Commerce Department reported gross domestic product (GDP) jumped an annualized 2.9%, following a 1.4% gain the prior quarter.  Corporations rebuilt inventories in anticipation of a rebound in new orders and exports accelerated.  Consumer spending rose 2.1%, which was…

Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th president of the United States, based on nearly final results announced by US television networks early Wednesday morning.  It will take time before the world has a clearer picture of how he plans to steer the government, and what will be the short and long-term impact on the US economy and markets. During this period of uncertainty, we think it’s important for investors to take a wider perspective on what drives markets and securities. 1. GET READY TO PUT UP WITH SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY. Elections happen on a regular basis, and investors typically endure…

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: September reported positive economic results, as second quarter growth was revised higher, job gains were solid, and US housing activity continued to be steady.  In its final estimate of 2Q16 gross domestic product, the government said the US economy expanded at a 1.4% annualized rate, compared with a prior estimate of 1.1%.  The upward improvement was driven by strong consumer spending and less negative drag from business investment. …

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: Economic data in August was mixed as growth within the business sector was lackluster while the US consumer remained resilient buoyed by steady employment gains and rising wage growth.  Second quarter growth was revised lower than previously reported.  Commerce Department data showed the economy expanded at a 1.1% annualized rate, from an initial estimate of 1.2%.  Consumer spending was the primary driver, growing at a 4.4% clip (from…

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: There was a positive tone to US economic data in July as higher wages and rising equity values continued to underpin strength in consumer spending, indicating the economy kept growing at a moderate pace.  Business activity expanded, albeit at a lower pace than June.  Companies saw strong orders, which led to higher production levels and an improving outlook for the second half of 2016. The government’s first reading…

Please find the next blog in our monthly series that provides timely market data as well as perspectives on the current state of the economy and the global financial markets. Global Economy: Recent economic data displayed underlying strength in consumer spending buoyed by strong employment gains.  In its final reading on first quarter growth, the Commerce Department reported the economy grew at an annualized 1.1% rate.  First quarter economic momentum appears to have carried over into the second quarter as June’s employment report was the strongest since October 2015 and activity within the manufacturing and services sectors rose amid strong…

The United Kingdom voted to end its 43 years of membership with the European Union. The margin was 51.9% to 48.1%.  U.K. Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced he will resign but will stay until October. Short-term, we anticipate market volatility will be high in the aftermath of this result.  The markets fully expected a “stay the course” vote and that the U.K. would choose to remain in the European Union. So what is driving the market volatility and concern today? The contagion affect – If Britain can leave, what’s preventing France, Italy and other EU countries from making the same…